2026 Trends: How the Economy, Trust, and AI Will Rewire Performance Marketing

ECONOMY

1. Inflation is slowing. Source

Global inflation is expected to decline from 4.2% in 2025 to 3.6% in 2026. The paradox: while price growth is slowing, consumers continue to feel the “inflation echo” caused by cumulative increases over previous years. Inflation remains central to understanding audiences - 73% of consumers who feel their financial situation has worsened blame rising living costs. Source

2. Concern remains elevated.

In 2026, consumers will pay $106 for the same basket of goods that cost $100 in 2023. The steepest increases are seen in healthcare (+5.4%), snacks and confectionery (+4.9%), and non-alcoholic beverages (+3.6%). Price growth remains the top consumer concern across all regions, surpassing climate change and unemployment. Globally, 74% of people are worried about the cost of everyday goods. Source

3. Economic growth already accounts for risk.

Global GDP is expected to grow by 3.1%. While geopolitical uncertainty does not halt global growth, it strongly impacts consumer sentiment. Global conflicts and wars rose from 5th to 2nd place among top concerns (+9% YoY). Political instability also entered the top ten, ranking 7th (+2.4% YoY). Source

4. Household finances have stabilized.

42% of Americans report that their financial situation improved or stabilized over the past year. The share of households feeling financially insecure dropped to 17% (down 13 percentage points YoY). Source

5. Pessimism is declining.

Only 8.5% of consumers say their situation is “much worse” than a year ago - half the level seen in mid-2024. Source

6. Discipline and financial awareness are growing.

78% of Americans plan to increase emergency savings in 2026.

60% actively seek additional income sources beyond their primary job.

36% aim to pay off credit card debt this year. Source

7. But financial pressure persists.

Nearly half of U.S. households say they have no money left at the end of the month after paying mandatory expenses, although 46% report having leftover funds. Source

8. Age is an asset.

Adults over 65 hold 50% of total U.S. household wealth.

Gen Z is the wealthiest young generation in history. The average household income of a 25-year-old Gen Z consumer in the U.S. is $40,000. However, their spending is growing twice as fast as that of previous generations at the same age. Source

9. Emotional credit.

36% of consumers are willing to take on short-term debt to spend on pleasure - an expression of the Treatonomics trend. Source

10. Fear of unemployment.

77% of respondents in North America - the highest share globally - expect unemployment to rise. Source

FINANCE

11. Imports are becoming less affordable.

U.S. retail prices for imported goods are 5.4% above previous trends due to new tariffs introduced in 2025. Source

12. In brands we trust.

Spending is increasing: the average U.S. household FMCG basket reached $36 (+4%).

62% of consumers cite trust as the decisive factor when choosing a brand (up from 56% in 2024).

75% want brands to respond faster to their changing needs. Source

13. More frequent shopping trips.

U.S. households make an average of 294 store visits per year (+1%).

77% of FMCG sales still come from physical stores.

Annual household spend: $8,222 in-store vs. $2,737 online. Source

14. Food remains the top priority.

Annual household spending on Food & Beverage totals $7,127 - the highest category. Source

15. Trading down - but selectively.

Despite declining inflation, 79% of global consumers continue to trade down. However, they do so strategically - cutting spending in basic categories to fund indulgences and experiences. Over one-third reduce spend in one category to increase it in another. Gen Z leads this behavior, showing the highest propensity for luxury purchases and credit usage. Source

16. Savings-driven behavior.

32% of shoppers switch to cheaper brands. Source

17. Speed matters most.

Fast delivery is now the norm. Food delivery’s share of global foodservice spending grew from 9% in 2019 to 21% in 2024 and continues to rise. In many categories, speed now outweighs price. Source

18. Brand choice vs. private labels.

30% of shoppers choose private-label products. U.S. private-label sales grew 5.5%, while national brands grew 6%. Source

19. Searching for guidance.

56% of U.S. households seek financial advice - the highest level since the 2008 financial crisis. Source

20. Advice goes digital.

44% of U.S. families use social media for financial information (up from 28% two years ago). Source

CONSUMER BEHAVIOR

21. “This doesn’t feel real.”

Over 50% of consumers question the authenticity of online content due to AI.

76% struggle to distinguish real images from AI-generated ones.

33% encountered deepfake attacks or fraud in the past year. Source

22. The search for what’s real.

42% say physical events are the highlight of their week, versus 15% who cite digital experiences.

79% of Gen Z prefer in-person dating over dating apps. Source

23. Self-sufficiency mindset.

68% emphasize independent management of health and finances.

64% prefer personalized experiences, but 32% feel uneasy about data collection practices. Source

24. Quantifying well-being.

70% of consumers use health apps or wearable devices. Source

25. Social media leads discovery.

50% of adults use social platforms to discover brands.

Instagram leads brand research, followed by Facebook and TikTok.

63% of Gen Z cite social ads as the primary influence on purchases. Source

26. Omnichannel is the default.

The average consumer uses 3.6 channels to purchase food. Consumers expect a seamless experience across all touchpoints. Source

27. Freedom as loneliness.

Americans gained three extra hours of free time per week, but 90% of it is spent alone. Source

28. The internet as infrastructure.

Average daily time online: 6 hours 38 minutes.

Top motivations: information search (62.8%) and staying connected - especially among ages 16–34. Source

29. Obsession with speed.

55% prefer fast solutions over traditional ones. People increasingly rely on “collective intelligence” from social platforms for advice on health and finances - often choosing riskier but faster paths. Source

30. Social commerce expands.

The line between entertainment and commerce continues to blur. Gen Z increasingly purchases directly via TikTok and Instagram. Growth in the U.S. and Europe is constrained by payment security concerns, unlike Asia where this behavior is normalized. Source

MEDIA LANDSCAPE

31. Shifting preferences.

Gen Z and Millennials increasingly favor social media and gaming over traditional TV. Gen Z spends 50 more minutes on social platforms than the average consumer and 44 fewer minutes watching TV and movies. Source

32. Subscription fatigue.

Rising prices pressure consumers. The average monthly cost of four streaming services reached $69 (+13% YoY).

47% believe they overpay.

39% canceled at least one subscription in the past six months - over 50% among Gen Z and Millennials. Source

33. Linear TV declines.

Cable TV penetration dropped from 63% to 49% in three years. News and sports retain viewers, but these formats are increasingly available on social platforms. Source

34. TV vs. streaming.

Linear TV still accounts for 57% of viewing time, especially among older audiences. Streaming dominates among ages 16–24. Source

35. Search vs. social.

Search remains the #1 source for brand discovery (32.8%), but for ages 16–34, social media ads lead. Source

36. Platform competition.

YouTube leads in total time spent - nearly double TikTok.

TikTok leads in engagement per user (~35 hours/month on Android).

Facebook remains massive (2.3B users) but declining in engagement.

Instagram surpasses TikTok in advertising reach. Source

37. Ads and influencer impact.

Ad budgets continue shifting to social platforms.

63% of Gen Z and 49% of Millennials say social ads and reviews have the strongest impact on purchase decisions.

Streaming ads influence only 28% and 25%, respectively. Source

38. Creativity as currency.

50% of young users feel more connected to online creators than TV celebrities. Creators are perceived as more authentic, making them a core brand channel. Source

39. Trust paradox.

Social media is considered the least reliable purchase-influence source, yet 29% of U.S. and European consumers bought a brand after seeing it on social media. Source

40. Attention as currency.

News media lose revenue as platforms capture attention, increasing reliance on big-tech algorithms and threatening journalistic quality. Source

TECHNOLOGY

41. Naturally artificial intelligence.

53% of U.S. consumers experiment with or regularly use generative AI.

Weekly active ChatGPT users reached 800 million (~10% of the global population). Source

42. AI as a work tool.

40% of brands plan to use generative AI.

70% of marketers allocate GenAI budgets expecting revenue growth; 56% already invest actively. Source

43. Personal AI assistants.

24% of AI users already use assistants for shopping.

74% of B2B and B2B2C organizations deployed AI agents.

By end of 2026, 40% of enterprise apps will embed AI agents. Source

44. Automation outlook.

By 2029, AI agents will autonomously resolve 80% of standard customer service issues. Source

45. Robots scale.

Amazon deployed one million AI-driven robots (DeepFleet), improving warehouse efficiency by 10%. Source

46. Algorithmic control.

71.6% of global ad spend will be algorithm-managed in 2026. Source

47. Skepticism toward banks.

Only 30% trust neobanks, versus 67% who trust regional traditional banks. Gen Z prefers debit cards over credit. Source

48. Digital currencies rise.

25% plan to invest in crypto - often influenced by peers rather than professionals. AI investment tools surpass traditional robo-advisors. Source

49. Discomfort with AI.

58% feel uneasy using AI to interact with brands.

Paradox: 80% want AI agents in customer service, yet 86% still value human interaction. Source

50. Digital twins.

By 2026, “AI shoppers” will emerge - delegated to search and purchase products autonomously. Source

PERFORMANCE

51. Retail Media (RMN) becomes the leading performance channel, surpassing search.

Retail Media is the new “oil” for marketers, driven by real purchase data and closed-loop measurement. The segment is projected to grow by 14.1%, and by 2028 it will overtake paid search to become the second-largest digital channel. More than 20% of total digital ad spend will go to RMNs.

The key shift is RMNs expanding beyond retailers’ owned sites (off-site) into CTV and the open web, powered by first-party data. Source

52. Video advertising enters industrial-scale production via Gen AI.

For performance marketing, this enables hundreds of variations of a single video for different micro-segments. 42% already use AI specifically for personalization, dramatically lowering CPA and increasing relevance. Source

53. Optimization for “AI buyers” (GEO replaces SEO).

A new discipline is emerging: Generative Engine Optimization (GEO). As consumers delegate product discovery to AI agents, brands must optimize content for machine readability - not just human consumption. If the algorithm doesn’t recognize your brand, it won’t select it. In B2B, 20% of vendors are expected to negotiate pricing with buyer bots by 2026. Source

54. Total ROI pressure: budgets shift to conversion.

Spending is moving away from channels with “soft” metrics toward those that deliver sales here and now. Source

55. Programmatic shifts to curated deals.

Due to inventory-quality issues and cookie loss, 66% of open-market spend now flows through curated private marketplaces (PMPs). This is becoming the new performance-buying standard - leveraging IDs, audience data, and supply-path optimization for efficient, transparent targeting. Source

56. Everything becomes shoppable.

Every touchpoint turns into a storefront. Video evolves from an engagement tool into a direct sales channel. Platforms roll out interactive elements, product overlays, and in-stream checkout. Social commerce continues to grow - especially on TikTok and Instagram, where discovery and purchase are no longer separate moments. Even in Connected TV, 60% of buyers expect interactive features that enable immediate conversion. Source

57. Mobile captures two-thirds of performance budgets.

Advertisers - especially in the U.S. - are expected to allocate 66% of digital budgets to mobile, driven by m-commerce growth. For performance marketers, this means landing pages, checkout flows, and creatives must be mobile-first, not merely mobile-adapted. Source

58. The return of econometrics (MMM) for attribution.

Traditional attribution models (last-click, multi-touch) are breaking down due to privacy constraints and walled gardens. Marketers are returning to Marketing Mix Modeling (MMM) to connect media spend to real business outcomes - revenue, margin, and LTV - rather than vanity metrics like clicks. In video, the primary KPIs are now store visits and sales, not views. Source

59. Influencer marketing becomes a performance channel.

61% of marketers plan to increase investment in creators - but now require hard performance metrics (ROI), not just likes and reach. Source

60. Performance through “smart frugality.”

In 2026, 79% of consumers will actively use trading-down strategies to find better deals. Performance campaigns must adapt by emphasizing transparent pricing, bundles, and clear value propositions. 55% of consumers are open to switching brands if they see better value - creating opportunities for aggressive market-share capture. Source

BUSINESS

61. Selling attention.

Digital advertising will account for 68.7% of global ad spend in 2026. Source

62. Intelligence ROI.

Organizations report 5x–10x ROI for every dollar invested in AI agents. Source

63. Content creation at scale.

86% of advertisers plan to use Gen AI to create video creatives. By 2026, 40% of all video advertising will be created or enhanced using Gen AI. Source

64. The growing importance of creativity.

61% of marketers plan to increase investment in creator (influencer) content in 2026. For example, Unilever plans to work with 300,000 creators, a 20x increase from today. Source

65. Linear TV declines; Connected TV rises.

Linear TV will decline by 4.2% in 2025 and show 0% growth in 2026. Connected TV ad spend will grow 13.6% in 2026, surpassing $37 billion. Source

66. Continued mobile growth.

U.S. advertisers are expected to allocate 66% of digital budgets to mobile. M-commerce will reach 8.7% of total retail sales. Source

67. A performance-first mindset.

54% of buyers plan to increase performance ad spend, while only 22% plan to increase brand advertising. For 84% of CMOs, ROI is now the primary budget-allocation criterion. Source

68. A leadership disconnect.

The share of CMOs who say their CEO and CFO support long-term brand investment fell to 69% (from 80% YoY). Despite this, 83% of CMOs still view brand as a core commercial asset. Source

69. Fear of replacement.

60% of employees fear that generative AI will increase stress and burnout. Source

70. The future remains uncertain - but more interesting and full of opportunity than ever. Source

CONCLUSIONS

1. Marketing for machines (Agentic Commerce) Source

By 2026, your customer is not only a human - but also an AI agent. AI agents are expected to autonomously make purchasing decisions based on parameters such as price, materials, and durability - not brand.

2. The “cost of doubt” and trust as the new currency Source

Consumers experience a hesitation reflex caused by a flood of deepfakes and low-quality content (“AI slop”). Over 50% question the authenticity of online content. For 62% of consumers, brand trust now outweighs price.

3. Retail Media (RMN) as the primary growth engine Source

Retail Media Networks are becoming new media powerhouses - ecosystems combining purchase data, CTV, and in-store screens.

4. From SEO to GEO (Generative Engine Optimization) Source

Search-and-scroll gives way to ask-and-act. Consumers increasingly rely on AI for answers.

5. Treatonomics: the economy of small rewards Source

In an environment of uncertainty and unreachable big goals, consumers focus on micro-joy.

6. Social rewilding and the offline renaissance Source

In response to digital overload, people seek tactile, real-world experiences.

7. Industrialized influencer marketing Source

The new era is not about one-off integrations, but about scaled, social-first demand generation.

8. The dignity of work and internal brand Source

The gap between leadership expectations (efficiency) and employee reality (fear) threatens customer experience.

9. The silver economy: ignored wealth Source

While marketers chase Gen Z, people over 50 control more than half of consumer spending in the U.S. and Europe.

10. Total ROI pressure: the end of vanity metrics Source

ROI is the dominant measure of effectiveness. The experimentation era is over; execution takes over. Budgets shift toward performance (54% plan increases) at the expense of pure brand spend (22%).